If I claim, "Donald Trump has a 99% chance to win the election," and then Hillary Clinton wins, does this show that I was wrong? So long as I don't claim a 100% or 0% chance, isn't any outcome just as consistent with my claim?

Yes. From "Very probably not-X" it simply doesn't follow that X is false.

Of course, that doesn't mean it's reasonable to ignore probabilities...

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